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The Non-IR Fraction Within Chronic Conditions
Estimated numbers and percentages of UK and US patients with each condition who do not have underlying insulin resistance — derived from current prevalence data and peer-reviewed IR co-occurrence research.
How to read this data: These tables address a clinically important question — within each patient population, what share of sufferers appears to have a condition driven by causes other than insulin resistance? A low "Without IR" figure (e.g. T2DM at 10%) confirms how dominant IR is as a root driver. A higher figure (e.g. OCD at ~60%) reflects that the condition is multi-causal and IR, while strongly implicated epidemiologically, is not yet proven to be the mechanism in all cases. All figures are research-based estimates; individual clinical variation applies.
Estimated IR-Free Patients — UK
| Condition | Total UK Patients | Est. % With IR | IR Strength | % Without IR | Number Without IR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Type 2 Diabetes
Diagnosed; ~850,000 undiagnosed additional
|
4,800,000 | ~90% | Critical | ~10% | 480,000 |
|
Hypertension
Diagnosed; ~5M additional undiagnosed
|
14,000,000 | ~65% | High | ~35% | 4,900,000 |
|
Arthritis
OA ~9M; RA ~400,000 — Versus Arthritis UK
|
10,000,000 | ~50% | Moderate | ~50% | 5,000,000 |
|
IBS
NHS est. ~1 in 10; includes all adult ages
|
8,000,000 | ~45% | Moderate–Low | ~55% | 4,400,000 |
|
ADHD
Diagnosed adults; significant under-diagnosis
|
2,500,000 | ~50% | Moderate | ~50% | 1,250,000 |
|
OCD
OCD-UK estimate; 1 in 50 population
|
1,000,000 | ~40% | Emerging | ~60% | 600,000 |
|
Autism
NAS UK figure; ~1.1% prevalence all ages
|
750,000 | ~40% | Emerging | ~60% | 450,000 |
| Combined across 7 conditions | 41,050,000 | — | — | ~41% weighted avg | 17,080,000 |
Estimated IR-Free Patients — US
| Condition | Total US Patients | Est. % With IR | IR Strength | % Without IR | Number Without IR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Type 2 Diabetes
CDC 2023 — diagnosed + undiagnosed combined
|
38,000,000 | ~90% | Critical | ~10% | 3,800,000 |
|
Hypertension
CDC 2023 — 47% of US adults; ~122M total
|
120,000,000 | ~65% | High | ~35% | 42,000,000 |
|
Arthritis
CDC — all types; predominantly OA (~32M)
|
58,000,000 | ~50% | Moderate | ~50% | 29,000,000 |
|
IBS
AGA/CDC est. — 25–45M range; mid-range used
|
35,000,000 | ~45% | Moderate–Low | ~55% | 19,250,000 |
|
ADHD
NIMH diagnosed adults; significant under-diagnosis
|
10,000,000 | ~50% | Moderate | ~50% | 5,000,000 |
|
OCD
NIMH — ~1.2% adults; some estimates up to 3M
|
3,000,000 | ~40% | Emerging | ~60% | 1,800,000 |
|
Autism
CDC 2023 — 1 in 36 children; all-age est. ~5M
|
5,000,000 | ~40% | Emerging | ~60% | 3,000,000 |
| Combined across 7 conditions | 269,000,000 | — | — | ~39% weighted avg | 103,850,000 |
Methodology & Data Sources
The "% with IR" estimates are derived from peer-reviewed co-occurrence and population studies rather than from direct HOMA-IR measurement in each condition cohort (which remains sparse in the literature). Each figure represents a reasonable mid-range estimate; actual clinical populations will vary. Prevalence figures are current as of 2023–2024 data releases.
Important caveat: Patient totals across conditions cannot simply be summed as individuals frequently carry multiple diagnoses simultaneously (e.g. hypertension + T2DM + OA). The combined totals in the tables reflect condition-diagnosis counts, not unique individuals. True unique individual counts would be substantially lower due to multi-morbidity overlap.