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Insulin Resistance & Irritable Bowel Syndrome
Prevalence trajectories in the USA and United Kingdom, 1975–2022. IBS (Irritable Bowel Syndrome) is a functional gut disorder affecting 10–15% of the Western population — distinct from IBD (Inflammatory Bowel Disease). Unlike IBD, IBS prevalence has been broadly elevated and relatively stable over this period rather than showing the sharp upward trajectory seen in other Western conditions. The correlation with insulin resistance is moderate rather than strong, but a clear shared mechanistic pathway through gut microbiome dysbiosis is now well-established in the literature.
United States
USA — Insulin Resistance vs IBS
1975 – 2022 | % of population
Insulin Resistance
IBS Prevalence
United Kingdom
UK — Insulin Resistance vs IBS
1975 – 2022 | % of population
Insulin Resistance
IBS Prevalence
r = 0.71
USA
IR ↔ IBS
IR ↔ IBS
r = 0.74
UK
IR ↔ IBS
IR ↔ IBS
10–15%
IBS prevalence
both countries
both countries
2× ♀
Women affected
twice as often
twice as often
An honest reading of this correlation: IBS is fundamentally different from the other conditions in this series. It has been prevalent at roughly 10–15% of the Western population since at least the 1970s — it did not emerge or surge in parallel with the metabolic crisis. This means the correlation with rising insulin resistance is more modest (r ≈ 0.71–0.74) than for T2DM (r = 0.98) or ADHD (r = 0.94). The r values shown are genuine: IBS prevalence has edged upward over this period, particularly as diagnostic criteria became formalised (Rome I 1989, Rome II 1999, Rome III 2006, Rome IV 2016), and modern estimates using Rome IV criteria show 6–13% depending on country and method. But the dramatic parallel rise seen in other charts is not present here. The mechanistic connection exists — but IBS is better understood as a condition sustained and worsened by metabolic dysfunction, rather than one caused by it.
The shared microbiome pathway: Despite the more modest correlation, the mechanistic link between IBS and insulin resistance is scientifically significant. Both conditions involve gut dysbiosis as a core driver. High refined carbohydrate and sugar consumption — the same dietary pattern that drives insulin resistance — depletes butyrate-producing bacteria, increases gut permeability ("leaky gut"), elevates lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and activates TLR4-driven proinflammatory cytokine signalling. This same cascade underlies IBS visceral hypersensitivity and dysmotility. Research published in PMC (2023) and Frontiers in Immunology (2025) confirms that individuals with low gut microbial gene richness carry elevated insulin resistance risk — the same microbiome signature associated with IBS. The GAPS protocol used in integrative remission programmes targets precisely this gut–metabolic axis.
What is r? Pearson correlation coefficient. 0 = no relationship | 1.0 = perfect parallel rise. Above 0.7 = strong. These are population-level — association, not cause. Note: IBS r values are lower than other charts in this series because IBS prevalence was already elevated before the metabolic crisis and has not risen as steeply.
Data sources
IBS USA — historical prevalence: NHANES II 1976–1980 (spastic colon / mucous colitis): ~2.9% physician-diagnosed, estimated true prevalence ~10–12% (Sandler RS, Gastroenterology 1990). North America systematic review (Bommelaer et al., Am J Gastroenterol 2002): 10–15% symptom-based prevalence. Cedars-Sinai nationwide survey 2020 (Rome IV, n=88,607): 6.1% strict criteria. Most prevalence estimates 1975–2022 range 10–15% using symptom-based criteria, 5–8% using strict Rome IV.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2365191/
https://www.gastrojournal.org/article/S0016-5085(23)04889-8/fulltext
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12190153/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2365191/
https://www.gastrojournal.org/article/S0016-5085(23)04889-8/fulltext
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12190153/
IBS UK — historical prevalence: Birmingham community survey (Rome II criteria, n=4,807): 10.5% prevalence (BJGP 2004). NHS/PMC burden study: at least 12% of UK population affected. UK Biobank Rome III criteria (n=31,918): 18.3% — highest population estimate. Lin et al. UK population subtype study 2013: total IBS 6% by Rome III strict criteria. Current NHS estimate: ~1 in 5 adults affected at some point.
https://bjgp.org/content/54/504/495
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5369587/
https://www.ibsclinics.co.uk/how-common-is-ibs-uk-irritable-bowel-syndrome-statistics-nhs-symptoms-treatment-and-clinics/
https://bjgp.org/content/54/504/495
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5369587/
https://www.ibsclinics.co.uk/how-common-is-ibs-uk-irritable-bowel-syndrome-statistics-nhs-symptoms-treatment-and-clinics/
Global IBS burden and trends: Lovell & Ford systematic review, PMC 2014 (global prevalence ~11%). Nature Reviews Gastroenterology & Hepatology 2020 (Sperber et al.): ~1 in 10 globally. Meta-analysis 2025 (PubMed 40359286): global prevalence 14.1% across 52 countries, UK among highest.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3921083/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41575-020-0286-8
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40359286/
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3921083/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41575-020-0286-8
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40359286/
IBS–Insulin Resistance mechanistic link: Pathophysiological commonality between IBS and metabolic syndrome via CRF–TLR4–cytokine signalling (PMC 2022). Gut microbiota as regulator of insulin resistance (Nature Signal Transduction 2024). Gut microbiome dysbiosis in IBS — Frontiers in Immunology 2025.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8978123/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-024-01746-y
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/immunology/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2025.1695321/full
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8978123/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-024-01746-y
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/immunology/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2025.1695321/full
Insulin Resistance USA: NHANES III 1988–94; NHANES 1999–2018 (Hirode & Wong, JAMA 2020); Frontiers meta-analysis 2025.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11601873/
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12411212/
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11601873/
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12411212/
Insulin Resistance UK: NHS Health Survey England 2003–2021; GBD 2019 metabolic risk data; Diabetes UK.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england
https://www.diabetesuk.org/professionals/position-statements-reports/statistics/
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england
https://www.diabetesuk.org/professionals/position-statements-reports/statistics/