Hypertension & IR

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Insulin Resistance & Hypertension — USA & UK 1975–2022

Insulin Resistance & Hypertension

Prevalence trajectories in the USA and United Kingdom, 1975–2022. Of all the conditions in this series, hypertension has the most directly documented causal mechanism: insulin resistance drives sodium retention in the kidneys, raises sympathetic nervous system activity, and promotes arterial stiffness — all independently raising blood pressure. The correlation is exceptionally strong in both countries and the mechanistic pathway is among the best-established in metabolic medicine.

United States

USA — Insulin Resistance vs Hypertension

1975 – 2022  |  % of adults
Insulin Resistance (%)
Hypertension (%)
United Kingdom

UK — Insulin Resistance vs Hypertension

1975 – 2022  |  % of adults
Insulin Resistance (%)
Hypertension (%)
r = 0.97
USA
IR ↔ Hypertension
r = 0.95
UK
IR ↔ Hypertension
~48%
USA adults with
hypertension (2022)
~30%
UK adults with
hypertension (2022)
Why the USA and UK numbers differ: The USA figure (~48%) uses the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline threshold of ≥130/80 mmHg, adopted in 2017. The UK figure (~30%) uses the older NICE/NHS threshold of ≥140/90 mmHg, which is still the standard in England. If the same 130/80 threshold were applied to the UK, the figure would be considerably higher — likely 40%+. This is a measurement standard difference, not a real health difference. Both populations show the same underlying trend: rising in parallel with insulin resistance over 50 years.
The mechanistic pathway is the most direct of any condition in this series: Insulin resistance → compensatory hyperinsulinaemia → kidneys retain sodium (via ENaC stimulation) → expanded blood volume → raised blood pressure. Simultaneously, elevated insulin activates the sympathetic nervous system, raising heart rate and vascular resistance. High insulin also promotes smooth muscle proliferation in arterial walls → arterial stiffness → sustained hypertension. This is not a coincidental association — it is a well-established causal sequence documented in multiple intervention studies. Reversing insulin resistance through dietary change (low-carbohydrate, intermittent fasting) consistently lowers blood pressure independent of weight loss. Sources: DeFronzo & Ferrannini (1991); Landsberg (2012); Reaven (1988); UKPDS; multiple RCTs.
What is r?  Pearson correlation coefficient. 0 = no relationship  |  1.0 = perfect parallel rise. Above 0.9 = very strong. These are population-level trends — correlation, not proof of sole causation. However, for hypertension the mechanistic evidence establishes causation beyond epidemiological correlation alone.
Data sources
Hypertension USA — prevalence trend: NHANES historical series. Egan et al. JAMA 2010 — trends 1988–2008. NCHS Data Brief No. 364 (2020) — 30.7% by old threshold / 45.4% by 2017 threshold in 2017–18. NCHS Data Brief No. 511 (2024) — 47.7% adults 2021–2023. CDC Million Hearts Hypertension Cascade data. Pre-1988 estimates from NCD-RisC pooled global analysis 1975–2015 (Lancet 2016) and Kannel et al. Framingham Heart Study data.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db364-h.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db511.htm
https://millionhearts.hhs.gov/data-reports/hypertension-prevalence.html
Hypertension UK — prevalence trend: NHS Health Survey for England (HSE) annual series 2003–2022 (NHS Digital). Graham et al. BMJ Medicine 2025 — HSE trend analysis 2003–2021: ~31% in 2003, stable 28–30% thereafter. PHE Hypertension Prevalence Estimates 2017. Pre-2003 estimates from NCD-RisC Lancet 2016 pooled analysis and UK Biobank historical data.
https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/health-survey-for-england/2022-part-2/adult-health
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12666190/
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5e725883e90e070aca43cc9d/Summary_of_hypertension_prevalence_estimates_in_England__1_.pdf
Mechanistic evidence — IR causes hypertension: DeFronzo RA & Ferrannini E. Insulin resistance: a multifaceted syndrome. Diabetes Care 1991. Reaven GM. Banting Lecture 1988 — role of insulin resistance in human disease. Landsberg L. Insulin-mediated sympathetic stimulation. J Hypertension 2012. Multiple RCTs showing low-carbohydrate diets reduce blood pressure independently of weight loss.
Insulin Resistance USA & UK: NHANES III 1988–94; NHANES 1999–2018 (Hirode & Wong, JAMA 2020); NHS Health Survey England; GBD 2019 metabolic risk; Diabetes UK; Frontiers meta-analysis 2025.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11601873/
https://www.diabetesuk.org/professionals/position-statements-reports/statistics/
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